Recent developments have shown that transpacific container rates to the West Coast doubled last week following the June 1st General Rate Increases (GRIs) to US$5,488/FEU, and the latest daily rates have surpassed US$6,000/FEU. This rise coincides with shippers initiating the peak season earlier than usual, ahead of tariff pause expirations expected in July and August.
Similarly, rates for shipments to the East Coast surged by 60% to US$6,410/FEU, with current daily rates exceeding US$7,000/FEU. The rates for both coasts are now on par with levels from a year prior, influenced by capacity constraints and increased demand prior to the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) port strike threat last year.
Shipping carriers are planning further transpacific GRIs ranging from US$1,000 to US$3,000/FEU for mid-June and again on July 1st. China's ports are still managing backlogged shipments due to a demand lull between April and May.
The redistribution of transpacific vessels and equipment to other trade lanes has caused additional bottlenecks, as these resources slowly return to their usual routes. As peak season volumes combine with restricted capacity and congestion at key Far East hubs, many of the planned rate hikes during June and July are projected to remain. Nonetheless, a reduction in rates might occur by mid-July as demand slows, congestion eases, and added capacity returns.
In the United States, ports are drawing from pandemic experiences to better handle the upcoming surge and minimize congestion. Early May forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF) mentioned an expected drop in import volumes due to high tariffs on Chinese goods, but anticipated stability through October.
However, NRF's current expectations suggest a rebound in imports during June with a peak in July. While reaching a low in September, projected July import volumes are expected to be 9% below last August's peak, and 4% lower than April 2025.
This data implies that April's strong frontloading, coupled with tariff uncertainty, may result in a somewhat weaker peak season than initially expected. The U.S. government's ongoing trade negotiations with China and the EU continue amid legal uncertainties.
Source: Container News